Sunday 30 October 2011

My Rant on Europe and the past few days

I wrote this on Thursday, it's about my thoughts on European Debt issues and where I think the focus will be in the next few weeks. I predict a bullish period for equities. That being said, don't all rush to your brokers at once and demand to be 100% invested, always do your own research before you make any decisions, after-all its your money!

Euro Zone Strikes Deal on 2nd Greek Package, EFSF

By: Sydney Forsythe

As of Thursday October 27, 2011, European debt crisis has been somewhat eased; Investors and traders are relieved to hear that the Euro zone struck a deal on the Greek debt issues. The deal will have private banks and insurers accepting a 50% “haircut” on Greek government bonds in efforts to reduce the Greek debt to manageable levels. After over eight hours of negotiations all parties agreed to a deal that would reduce Greece’s debt by 100 billion Euros, making its debt 120% of GDP similar to its levels in 2008 at the start of the Euro zone crisis. There are still ongoing efforts to strengthen the Greek economy; the EU is attempting to put in place a value package worth 130 billion Euros (an increase from 109 Billion proposed earlier) by 2012. To sweeten the deal and improve investor confidence, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) has suggested that it too will increase its activities in the Euro Zone to strengthen the recovery of Greece and other European nations on the brink of default. All this comes on the heels of an announcement from China offering to assist the Greek and European nations. Even though the bail out might suffice the Greek economy for the time being, some skeptics question how Greece will handle its debt moving forward. It is no question that Greece needs to adjust government spending and come up with ways to build capital, failure to rectify these issues in the coming years will prove problematic for Greece in the long run.

The Great news from Europe spurred a market wide rally this week; Investors are hopeful that the issue will finally be resolved. With Europe on the back burner for the time being, investors will now look to America’s debt woes. There has been little talk about the United State’s current debt issues. Problems were brought to light after the US suffered a downgraded credit rating earlier this year from Standard and Poor’s after barely avoiding default on its debts. There have been more talks about another credit downgrade in the near future for America if they fail to do something about their current debt position which is about 89% of it’s GDP. Republicans propose a $2.2 trillion spending cut that will take significantly out of health care, Medicare and Mediaid, while Democrats also put a plan forth to reduce debt by 3 trillion in the long run.

It’s not all bad news in the US; the US economy grew at its fastest pace in a year, as consumer and businesses increased spending. The US GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in the third quarter as opposed to 1.7% growth forecasted by analysts. The labour market also seems to be improving as unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 last week. Analysts are looking optimistic going into the year-end, so this might be a great Christmas for investors.

This and other well put opinions can be found on the DeGroote Trading floor Website. You can also find important economic indicators and the date they will be released, these things serve as a great way gauge market sentiments and how investors will react, pay special attention to census v.s actual numbers, If the indicators come in better than analysts predict then we will see rising stock markets.

Stay tuned for Resources Part 2!

All for now
(Pigs get Slaughtered!)

Tuesday 18 October 2011

Resources Part 1

It's been a very long weekend! I meant to write this blog a while back but i haven't been able to pull my self away from essay/presentation/work. But that's enough whining, I'll get to that in another blog.

Meanwhile I think this will be one of the most important blogs I write (for those with less experience). Reason being; everything you do in the world is dependent on information. Great information yields great results (given proper analysis is applied to that information), in contrast even if you apply the best analysis to faulty or inaccurate information you would be hard pressed to see good results from your analysis.... ok ok ok Sydney What are you trying to say here (succinct and straight to the point!!!) Well what I'm trying to say is if you don't find good information, then making consistent profits will be like fishing with no string (yes that's the best analogy i could come up with.)

When I begun market analysis the first website i visited was http://finance.yahoo.com I'm pretty sure the only reason i stayed on that site was because it was relatively colorful (and maybe i had no one to creep on facebook.) For a complete novice that junk looked like "gibberish", I had taken a few finance classes so i knew what the market was (in a very general sense) but I had no idea what the S&P 500 was, no idea what kind of information I could find on the website, essentially I had no clue what I was doing. So I decided to take baby steps, my best friend (in terms of websites, you'll never be replaced friend!) for a while as a website called "how the market works" coupled with the dictionary on Investopedia (Which i still refer to till this very day.) gave me a plethora of information in lay mans terms. I hated reading things that overly complicated concepts, I found how the market works to be very helpful in this regard, and wherever i ran into trouble investopedia would help me out. I learned (or re-learned) everything from: what a stock is all the way to what the SEC does in a short time, all i had to do was read definitions and let them make sense to me.

How the market works gave me my first set of tools, it gave me a nudge to jump in the door(so to speak) it let me get my feet wet, but believe it or not, it's not what got me completely head over heels for equities. My infatuation came from a book,( as you can tell by now i wasn't interested in the complicated stuff) It was a how to for dummies book actually. It was called " How to invest in the Canadian stock market for dummies" At that time i didn't know the distinction between investing and trading. The book clearly showed me that and introduced me to what i believe is the most fascinating aspect of equity analysis which is: Technical analysis.

To keep this blog relatively short and not bore you to death I will end here, but if you're a novice trader, or you just want to learn more even for a minute, I suggest you check out "How the Market Works" website. Its very informative and a great foot in the door!

Till later, Trade Strong (how about this one, it was suggested. BLAOW!)

Tonight

Sorry for the brief hiatus, I've been very busy with school work, but my next blog post will be on tonight.

Thanks !

Thursday 13 October 2011

Dow Jones Analysis

This is the essence of this blog. More times than not i want to blog my analysis, sometimes it will be followed by my entry positions as well as my target price, stop price and risk profile. Other times it will be an analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI: DIA) because it is one of the best "market thermometers" if you will, or i will analyze Apple (AAPL), not only because it is one of the most promising pieces of equity out there, but also because i have to cover the stock for my investment club (Macglobal) <<--- Check it out !


DOW JONES


Now the Good Stuff


News and Non Technical Drivers
Today October 13, 2011 was a bearish day for the DJI; we saw a 40-point (.35%) decrease in trading price. The index traded below open all day, having an incredibly bearish open, then down trending intraday for a few hours till lunch before seeing a rally to close the below its open. Some major catalysts for the bearish day were: a less than stellar earnings report from JP Morgan Chase, as well as the wake of a possible investigation on the allegations that big banks violated antitrust laws before announcing monthly debit fees.Bank of America (BAC) and JP Morgan Chase lead the index decline with losses of 5.5% and 4.8% respectively

The mid-day rally was sparked on news that Slovakia voted to approve an expanded European Financial Stability Facility giving investors some solace in the troubles in Greece and the EU.

Technical Analysis


Photo from Barchart

We will use the ETF: DIA to analyze the Dow Jones industrial Average. DIA is an ETF that closely tracks and reflects the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
A three-month look at the daily chart of the DIA indicates that the ETF is trading in a range. Over the last 3 months prices have traded between $104 and $116, As of October 12 2011, prices hit the top of the range at approximately $116 as it traded above its 50,20 and 200 EMA.

When prices trade in ranges it is best to use oscillators and envelopes to indicate reversal points, if we are able to pinpoint a precise entry point at the bottom of the range we will expose ourselves to a possible gain of 11% in a short time period.

Bollinger bands indicates a reversal to the bearish side, prices hit the top of the Bollinger band on Oct 12 2011, prices that hit the band indicates a reversal, however, the end of a trend is typically accompanies with higher than average volume, this was not the case in this instance, therefore the reversal was not confirmed by volume.

A look at the stochastic oscillator shows the ETF trading in an overbought area; the %k stochastic line is at 91 and is indicating a bearish reversal. A bearish signal will be indicated when the %K line crosses below the %D line in the overbought region, this is a strong reversal signal.

Today a Doji was formed, indicating indecision in the market, a Doji followed by a bearish day is also a strong indicator of a reversal. Tomorrows trading may dictate weather or not the range continues or there is a break out to the bullish side.
Outlook for tomorrow

Technical signals indicate that tomorrow will be the beginning of a short-term bearish trend until we hit the bottom of the Bollinger band and we will see a reversal.

An anomaly may occur due to an impressive earnings report by Google released after hours today, the euphoria of market participants may drive prices up and bullish in the Dow.

Recommendation
We should sit out of the DIA or in the short term, if action must be taken right now we should short it or buy a contra Dow Jones ETF, The DOG is a stark contrast to the DIA, it is trading at the bottom of the Bollinger band and the stochastic oscillator indicates a bullish cross in the oversold area.

Wednesday 12 October 2011

Inspiration

Fear of Failure.

I don’t know if I have what it takes.
I don’t know if I am capable or if I have the caliber
but what I do know is
I will never find out if I don’t try.
If I don’t give it my all
I am robbing myself of an opportunity
I am committing myself to failure
without ever having competed.

So this is my commitment, to never commit, to the fear of failure.

This is Ardis
For more Beautiful words and inspiration visit
This is Ardis

The Title?

Come into my trading room - The name was inspired by a book I highly recommend for beginners. If you're anything like me (then you are freaking awesome) but really, if you're anything like me then you want to know more and you want the information delivered in a succinct manner, free from all the extra bull. The book was recommended by two of the best traders that I know. Although I don't know many traders, I'm sure these guys are two of the best around, I've seen them in action.

Alexander Elder captures all we want in his must have book for all traders, he explains what needs to be done, why it needs to be done and how to go about it. He answers all questions as though you were sitting across from him and asking them personally, and he should! His success as a trader has a bit to do with his expertise as a psychologist, and one thing you know if you've read anything about stock trading is that the game has a great deal to do with psychology, we must understand the state of mind of the masses and take advantage accordingly. Alexander Elder tells you the story of the markets as though you are watching it happen in crystal ball in front of you, then makes you feel dumb if you don't trade like him (oh the Russians).

So why not quit reading this novice's babble and pick up a book and read the crap out of it?.. well you can! (But then ill be sad) but the book targets traders with huge pockets, most books do and their advice is sound. Most people will tell you that if you have less than 30k to blow for no reason you should stay away from the markets, but i don't have that much, not even close, but i will get there, and you will come with me. We will turn five dollars into ten, ten into 15, 15 into 20.... you get the gist i can keep going.

Why am i so confident? well today is october 12th 2011, as you know its been a terrible few weeks that we've had in the markets! I am proud to say that in the past two weeks i have returned over 8% on my portfolio while trading stocks, mostly mid and micro cap. This is not to sell you a strategy or some stock picking guru/ machine service (more on those to come), rather i want you to know it is possible to be a novice and have enough skill to make +8% return on your portfolio in a market that chews and spits people out for lunch. There are of course rules to doing that, but the best part of it  is that you make the rules, the better your rules are the better a trader you will become.

Besides Edgar's book id recommend an author by the name of Toni Turner. Toni is the author of a few how to for beginner books, my favourite is "short term trading in the new stock market". Toni also makes the markets really easy to understand, she emphasizes the idea of not trading to make money initially, rather we must trade to trade well... WTF does that mean? we'll get there... We'll get there together.

One thing I look for in books is its "straight-forwardness" for lack of a better word (although i could just look one up in the thesaurus... i digress). A book must tell me what i should know and why i should know it in as few words as possible and still sound intelligent (so i trust it). I don't like being bull $#!++3d (See what i did there), I also don't like spending a lot of money with no value attached, I will not spend $500 on a book that tells me the same thing a $30 dollar book tells me, i'd much rather buy $AAPL with $470 (yes that will only buy me one stock, but ill love that one stock and treat it like a queen) and buy the $30 dollar book. So before you think that just because it costs more there's more value, STOP! read a section of the book; does it make sense, is there some secret that will revolutionize trading forever, will you find the same information in a book that costs half as much. You might probably be better off investing the money in something else.

Books are a great tool, they're the third most useful thing i've come across when learning the world of stock markets, the others being experience and people in that order(more to come on these). But books are the first point of contact, and they should be your first too.

The links below take you to Toni Turners website, and amazon.com to find Alexander Elder. They are two books that i highly recommend. Please leave a recommendation for me, i'd love to read them and learn more so i can fine tune my trading and maybe next blog ill be able to tell you that i made 20% return instead of 8%.

Till then, Trade well (Im trying a new thing... does Trade well sound good? EENH) (BLAOW!)

Edgar Alexander
Toni Turner

My First

Welcome to my trading book!
I don't know where to begin, I've never been into blogging or discussing ideas or stories really, but thats all about to change. So if you're reading this, i'd like to thank you and welcome you on a journey with me, the journey to become better traders. The road will be fraught with difficulties and mistakes, we will learn together share ideas and grow together, we will bask in the glory of victories and wallow in the pits of defeat together, but we will ultimately come out victorious because every lesson learnt is a victory.

That being said, heres a little about me and the reason I'm blogging. I am completing my final year at McMaster's DeGroote school of Business with a focus in finance and  minor in economics. You can see how my passion has influenced my choice of education. I've had a passion for equities and stock market for a while, but i've been scared, lacked confidence, and slightly too lazy to learn more. Over the past few months I've realized that stepping out of ones comfort zone isn't difficult and has its amazing rewards, so i began to learn and learn some more and i absolutely loved it, now i cant stop! I just want more knowledge. Thats where this blog comes in, I know that there are many people like me out there; just beginning, kind of confused, scared (although they wont admit it) and ignorant, but beyond all that they have the capability and passion to learn about it.

Wow! I've said all that and you probably still don't know what this blog is about right? well you probably have a clue if i directed you here, or if you've read the title and the book its losely based off (more on that to come). Well if neither of those apply to you i'll tell you plain and simple. This blog is about trading! It's about the practicalities of swing trading on a budget, the intricacies of technical analysis, the cross roads where the fundamentals meet the charts, its about random rants and thoughts i have about news  and the markets. I'd like to give you a look at my most personal trading book! As a novice we should all keep one(a trading book) it's a detailed record of my paper trades and real trades as well as my equity curve. I also want to tell you about my mistakes so you can avoid them. I'd like to share my struggles with you so you can help me with them, and id like to share with you valuable resources that have brought me to this point of my trading career where i feel comfortable enough to blog!

How did it all begin? you ask, well it started with a conversation, one that i did not participate in for lack of knowledge, then it grew to curiosity, then understanding and fascination, then a full out pure unadulterated love for the idea and thirst for more knowledge. It's almost like drugs. Which begs the question "Can one be addicted to the markets?" I think yes, but a healthy addiction is necessary for success. I can say i've neglected a few meals (although you wouldn't be able to tell if you saw my belly ;) ) missed a bunch of t.v shows (Im sorry football) got lost in the ever glowing allure of charts, but its always important to stay grounded and focused and have time for everyone around you, especially if you have someone as special as the woman in my life :) ( thats not there because i know she will read this, she truly is an inspiration for me to become better).

NOW Welcome! Come into my trading book! Lets learn together, tell me what i can do to improve my skills, limit my risks and increase my reward potential. I'll share my knowledge with you and i invite you to share your opinion with me.