Friday 24 February 2012

Working - Coming soon : Research Report.

Over the next few days/ weeks I will be working on my first research report that i will make publicly available. Please check back every now and then for the opportunity to download my very first research report.
Meanwhile....
In the short term I've been taking a look at Research in Motion for a swing trade opportunity. After applying some Technical analysis to RIM, I find some potential for small gains with the Canadian Tech company.

Here's a Look at the potential I see for a short term swing.


What I look for is areas of support and resistance, coupled with technical catalysts such as oversold regions or candle stick patterns. There is no guaranteed tell tale sign that a stock will rally to the extent which an investor or trader wants it to. One important thing missing from RIM is volume. It is important for trends or trend reversals to be confirmed by volume. Look for higher than normal volume at the tail end of a rally or price decline to confirm that a reversal is imminent.

It is also important to note that technical analysis is simply the study of investors sentiments regarding the supply and demand of an underlying security, while sometimes signs point to an imminent rally, the underlying security does not necessarily react like they "should". To quote Dr. Alexander Elder (Paraphrase)... Technical analysis is always correct unless it isn't.

Trade the right way, Pigs get slaughtered

Sunday 12 February 2012

Company coverage

An analyst typically chooses a sector in industry and covers stocks within that sector. If you know me personally you would understand my fascination with tech gizmos and consumer goods. You can actually go into my room and see a ridiculous amount of gadgets that I cannot possibly use at once. My sister makes fun of me for that but it's a fascination I just can't overcome. Lucky for me I know the root cause.... Father (this piece of knowledge will save me at least 4 hours in therapy). The point I'm trying to make here is that as an analyst my fascination will play into the kind of stocks I cover. That fascination tends to be a competitive advantage, it helps me to notice subtle changes that have ripple effects on the company and the stock price as a whole.

In this post I will give outlooks and my personal opinions on 3 tech stocks which I follow closely and one consumer good (Also have a fascination for watches) Fossil.

The First and obvious tech choice Apple
I am very bullish on this Tech Giant. After being one of the only companies to withstand the barrage of bad news from Europe on Friday; one must assume that investors truly believe in the growth story at Apple. They continue to maintain a large amount of Cash in hand totalling $98 billion dollars, which may be the only ruffle in their sheets. Investors will soon begin to demand value for that large cash balance. It will be interesting to see what AAPL is able to do with such buying power and future potential. I will continue to hold a position in this company, and add unto my position on pull backs and hedge for downside protection with in-the-money puts.

Second and perhaps just as obvious as the first: Google
Google continues to recover after dropping due to earnings release that missed projections. The sentiments in Google stock are that they are still a strong growing company with the ability to branch out into more technological ventures; their acquisition of Motorola speaks to such prospects. It is very possible and likely to see Google reach the highs created prior to earnings release. I continue to remain bullish on this stock going into next week and further out until they fail to break the resistance created by their all time highs at $640.

Our Canadian love child RIM
RIM took a major hit in its stock prices over the previous week. What was supposed to be a correction in price was amplified by major bad news regarding a loss of a huge part of their market share which is the U.S department of justice (A loss to the Apple iPhone). Seeking a position at this time would be like trying to catch a falling knife. It is tough to see where the Canadian Tech company might bottom out, I will continue to stay away from RIM but seek an entry position $13.00 shows much value and promise.

Finally my consumer good/ Additional stock Fossil
On Wednesday a very bearish signal developed in this stock, a candlestick with a long upper wick signalled that Prices increased to a point where investors saw no value in the stock then retreated to close the day much lower. This forms an immediate resistance point and an opportunity for a short in the market, at least temporarily. I took this as a signal and entered a short position on the stock. I’m bearish in the short run, but will seek to hedge my position going into earnings.