Good Morning,
What's in the letter
The final revisions for Q1 GDP numbers will be released today, the markets are evidently excited about the numbers as futures have climbed in the pre market hours.
Moodys now has a neutral outlook for Japanese auto makers; sighting the weaker yen and a recovery from a natural disaster.
Gold and precious metals continue to tumble on the back of speeches by Federal reserve chairmen who routinely discuss the end to ultra easy monetary policy.
Blackberry has now opened up its service offering and will now provide security to companies with handheld devices other than BlackBerries. It seems as though the company has a contingency plan in case it's core operations in a saturated market fails to sustain growth.
What I think
The optimism behind today's GDP release raises questions about the rationale behind the market direction in the past few weeks.
The other day, Bernanke's speech outlining 3.4% growth this year was met with a market wide sell-off in what indicated perhaps a longer term market correction to come due to the fear of a taper. Whereas, this mornings GDP report is estimated to be 2.4% and is being met with a rally in the futures.
Are investors betting on a slower economy followed by a prolonged period of ultra easy monetary policy?
If you've followed this blog for any amount of time, you know that am a BlackBerry bull. We are only days away from the release of Q1 numbers from the smartphone provider, this will be the first complete quarter encompassing sales from the company's new BB10 hand sets. Analyst's estimated range from -$0.15 to $0.70 I'm leaning somewhere in the middle. a good earnings surprise should squeeze out shorts and give the stock a huge boost.
Download your full report
Till next time,
Trade Well
Showing posts with label Market report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market report. Show all posts
Wednesday, 26 June 2013
Thursday, 20 June 2013
Market Report 20 June
What's on the report
Markets around the world continue to fall on the back of Ben Bernanke's speech yesterday which indicated a strengthening economy.
Market Participants fear the fed will begin to taper its stimulus program which is supposed to keep the economy afloat.
PMI numbers indicate contraction in China at a growing rate as well as in the Eurozone including Germany.
UK retail sale look to have improved in the last month.
What I think
There is an obvious disconnect between current market movement and the fundamental drivers of the market as a whole. Economic expansion and GDP growth of 3 - 3.5% are impressive numbers and should indicate a probable expansion of company earnings. This sentiment is clearly not shared by markets around the world as indicated by their reaction to Bernanke's speech yesterday.
On the other hand, this sell off is matched by an increase in 10 year interest rates, This increase forecasts the end of cheap money for corporations therefore an expansion of interest expense across the board and a shrinking of bottom lines.
Analysts have been touting to no end the demise of the recent 30 year bond bull market, It's worth nothing that if they are right, the bond market has typically been a predictor of the direction a stock market should go. Owing to the interest rate theories and the bond market direction, it is easy to see this market fall into a 5-10% correction in the medium term. However, if we believe the Fed's assessment of the economy, we should see growing earnings in the coming quarters which will bolster the stock market further.
Download the complete report
Trade Well!
Markets around the world continue to fall on the back of Ben Bernanke's speech yesterday which indicated a strengthening economy.
Market Participants fear the fed will begin to taper its stimulus program which is supposed to keep the economy afloat.
PMI numbers indicate contraction in China at a growing rate as well as in the Eurozone including Germany.
UK retail sale look to have improved in the last month.
What I think
There is an obvious disconnect between current market movement and the fundamental drivers of the market as a whole. Economic expansion and GDP growth of 3 - 3.5% are impressive numbers and should indicate a probable expansion of company earnings. This sentiment is clearly not shared by markets around the world as indicated by their reaction to Bernanke's speech yesterday.
On the other hand, this sell off is matched by an increase in 10 year interest rates, This increase forecasts the end of cheap money for corporations therefore an expansion of interest expense across the board and a shrinking of bottom lines.
Analysts have been touting to no end the demise of the recent 30 year bond bull market, It's worth nothing that if they are right, the bond market has typically been a predictor of the direction a stock market should go. Owing to the interest rate theories and the bond market direction, it is easy to see this market fall into a 5-10% correction in the medium term. However, if we believe the Fed's assessment of the economy, we should see growing earnings in the coming quarters which will bolster the stock market further.
Download the complete report
Trade Well!
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