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Over the next few days/ weeks I will be working on my first research report that i will make publicly available. Please check back every now and then for the opportunity to download my very first research report.
Meanwhile....
In the short term I've been taking a look at Research in Motion for a swing trade opportunity. After applying some Technical analysis to RIM, I find some potential for small gains with the Canadian Tech company.

Here's a Look at the potential I see for a short term swing.

What I look for is areas of support and resistance, coupled with technical catalysts such as oversold regions or candle stick patterns. There is no guaranteed tell tale sign that a stock will rally to the extent which an investor or trader wants it to. One important thing missing from RIM is volume. It is important for trends or trend reversals to be confirmed by volume. Look for higher than normal volume at the tail end of a rally or price decline to confirm that a reversal is imminent.

It is also important to note that technical analysis is simply the study of investors sentiments regarding the supply and demand of an underlying security, while sometimes signs point to an imminent rally, the underlying security does not necessarily react like they "should". To quote Dr. Alexander Elder (Paraphrase)... Technical analysis is always correct unless it isn't.

Trade the right way, Pigs get slaughtered

Company coverage

An analyst typically chooses a sector in industry and covers stocks within that sector. If you know me personally you would understand my fascination with tech gizmos and consumer goods. You can actually go into my room and see a ridiculous amount of gadgets that I cannot possibly use at once. My sister makes fun of me for that but it's a fascination I just can't overcome. Lucky for me I know the root cause.... Father (this piece of knowledge will save me at least 4 hours in therapy). The point I'm trying to make here is that as an analyst my fascination will play into the kind of stocks I cover. That fascination tends to be a competitive advantage, it helps me to notice subtle changes that have ripple effects on the company and the stock price as a whole.

In this post I will give outlooks and my personal opinions on 3 tech stocks which I follow closely and one consumer good (Also have a fascination for watches) Fossil.

The First and obvious tech choice Apple
I am very bullish on this Tech Giant. After being one of the only companies to withstand the barrage of bad news from Europe on Friday; one must assume that investors truly believe in the growth story at Apple. They continue to maintain a large amount of Cash in hand totalling $98 billion dollars, which may be the only ruffle in their sheets. Investors will soon begin to demand value for that large cash balance. It will be interesting to see what AAPL is able to do with such buying power and future potential. I will continue to hold a position in this company, and add unto my position on pull backs and hedge for downside protection with in-the-money puts.

Second and perhaps just as obvious as the first: Google
Google continues to recover after dropping due to earnings release that missed projections. The sentiments in Google stock are that they are still a strong growing company with the ability to branch out into more technological ventures; their acquisition of Motorola speaks to such prospects. It is very possible and likely to see Google reach the highs created prior to earnings release. I continue to remain bullish on this stock going into next week and further out until they fail to break the resistance created by their all time highs at $640.

Our Canadian love child RIM
RIM took a major hit in its stock prices over the previous week. What was supposed to be a correction in price was amplified by major bad news regarding a loss of a huge part of their market share which is the U.S department of justice (A loss to the Apple iPhone). Seeking a position at this time would be like trying to catch a falling knife. It is tough to see where the Canadian Tech company might bottom out, I will continue to stay away from RIM but seek an entry position $13.00 shows much value and promise.

Finally my consumer good/ Additional stock Fossil
On Wednesday a very bearish signal developed in this stock, a candlestick with a long upper wick signalled that Prices increased to a point where investors saw no value in the stock then retreated to close the day much lower. This forms an immediate resistance point and an opportunity for a short in the market, at least temporarily. I took this as a signal and entered a short position on the stock. I’m bearish in the short run, but will seek to hedge my position going into earnings.

Waiting to be bullish on RIM

I'll start out by saying that I've spent the last 24 hours playing with my new Blackberry 9900 bold, and I must say that although I've missed the Blackberry, since i parted ways with the phone nothing's changed significantly. I took a temporary leave from the world of Blackberry back in June of 2011 when Samsung released the new Sidekick 4g with the android platform, I have been a fan of the Sidekick and the android platform, so when they were put together all bets were off, the berry couldn't hold me any more, but that's neither here nor there. What I'm trying to say is that since I put down my blackberry (or what was affectionately known as "crack-berry") for its competitor the Android, The company has failed to make any tangible changes or innovations to their handsets. Nothing significant has happened with the company or the devices they offer. As far as I understand consumers(Tech Savy consumers that want more in a phone than BBM and SMS) consider the phone makers to be a stagnant company that lacked innovation and refused to evolve with the industry. As a result Blackberry's share holders suffered a dismal performance last year with a stock price drop of over 70%. What then happened on December 20th to spark such a bullish run in the price of the stock until two days ago?

On December 20th 2011 RIM traded at $12.45 which marked the lowest price the stock has ever traded at. At these prices the company's shares were clearly oversold and investors saw some value, enough in fact to cause a mild rally (price correction ), or so I thought. What was supposed to be a technical correction of the price reverting to its [steeply downward sloping]moving average, turned for the most part to be a trend reversal of sorts as RIM broke through resistance at $15.50 and continued it's rally up until two days ago.

Perhaps investors noticed that RIM is clearly under valued, trading at a PE of just below 4 while its competitors are well over 10 (AAPL~12 and GOOG~16). If that's the case I could be a bullish Investor in RIM, but I'm not quite buying it, RIM has had a relatively low PE ratio for most of the latter part of last year and it failed to see investors flooding in. For this to be a solid trend change there needs to be a reason to believe they will grow. The market price for rim is obviously undervalued but no one has any concrete reason to believe that the company will sustain growth and remain relevant in a highly competitive environment. This brings me to my next point.

Shareholders have begged RIM to change its leadership for months, That's the obvious move that could revitalize a dying franchise. In my opinion that would be a step in the right direction, but for RIM to be truly successful (And ill probably get killed for this) they need to divest from their handset creating business, it's obviously not their strong suit. They have yet to make a handset(Cellular device) with crucial features that the everyday cell phone user needs (Front facing Camera, WiFi hotspot capabilities, really they have just introduced one handset with touch capabilities that is worth mentioning (Okay maybe 2), the GPS on any one of their phones is absolutely dismal[I'm not even sure the Bold 9900 has one] ). RIM's competitive edge is in its enterprise security and information technology. I will say without a shadow of a doubt that rim has the most secure operating system, but their handsets just aren't competing with others out there.

To my surprise; yesterday, as I was picking up my new blackberry bold 9900 (for reasons too long for this blog) I got a text telling me to check the news, lo and behold, the thing that every Research In Motion investor wanted for RIM was coming true, the board had appointed Thorsten Heins as the new CEO of RIM. At first I was sad, mainly because I was looking forward to a pull back that began two days ago so that I could find an attractive entry price and trade up till its over bought again, but I believed that this was a piece of good news that would move markets further in a bullish direction.

I woke up this morning to hear pre market bullish sentiments about RIM as I suspected, but a drastic change occurred when the market opened and inched to the contrary. Apparently Thorsten Heins had effectively thrown me a bone and said that he plans to change nothing about current operations at RIM[no drastic changes necessary]. The markets quickly reacted to this unexpected news and the stock suffered for it, thereby furthering its correction/decent, and potentially presenting me with an attractive entry price.

while I believe that investors will see the value in this undervalued stock, I cant see it reversing in trend just yet, until some catalyst of "EPIC PROPORTION" comes by and attracts a flock of eager investors. For now I will wait for pull back and a technical signal for an oversold sign to find an attractive entry point.

I've done some technical analysis to illustrate my points and share my POV.
PS. Forgive the image size, I'm not a pro at coding HTML ... YET



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